← Ascent London 2026 - Path of Steel
Water FractalTier 2
at Ascent London 2026 - Path of Steel
decks
3
(1.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
26
14-10-2
overall winrate
57.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.6%
avg ELO +1.7 per match
expected value
51.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1383
· median 1264
· range 1248–1638
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1038
Q1 1194
Q3 1419
1750
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.2% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 69.3% | +9.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.5% | +1.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 32.8% | -16.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.6 |
| Arcane | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 29.2% | -33.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.9% | +20.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
